Bloomberg Intelligence predicts that electric vehicle sales will be dominated by Tesla and BYD for at least the next 5 years, with Volkswagen AG trailing behind.

While Tesla still experienced a higher volume of sales for the entire 2023, selling 1.8 million electric cars, BYD overtook Tesla as the world top top-selling electric vehicles manufacturer in the last quarter of the year.

Trailing behind the US and Chinese manufacturers, VW is “no longer a contender for the EV”, reports Bloomberg.

In a statement, VW said: “We remain one of the world’s leading automotive manufacturers. With an unrivalled portfolio of strong global brands, leading technologies at scale, innovative ideas to tap into future profit pools and an entrepreneurial leadership team, the Volkswagen Group is committed to shaping the future of mobility through investments in electric and autonomous driving vehicles, digitalisation and sustainability.”

Commenting on the prediction, Global Data analyst and automobile sector expert Sammy Chan, said: “In the global EV race, Tesla and BYD are currently well ahead of Volkswagen Group and we do expect a sizeable gap to remain for the next few years. In the long-term though, we expect VW Group to make up some of the lost ground in the EV race.”

Despite Bloomberg’s predictions, Chan highlights the competitive advantage that BW still has in Europe: “VW Group are still ahead in the EV race in its home market of Europe and its breadth of brands means it has plenty of scope for electric model expansion.

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 Its heavy investments in electric vehicles and its moves to better control its supply chain for EV production means we also expect an element of technology catchup and better price parity to competitors to allow the group to maintain a healthy lead overall in this region.

BYD will be well-supported particularly in Asia, and it is also starting to ramp up in Europe. However, EU protectionism is a downside risk for Chinese EVs as we have seen with the recent EU probe as well as the rule change in France to remove government incentives for the purchase of China-made cars.”

“Tesla is well positioned to maintain a lead in the global EV race, due to the phenomenal demand for its cars, and its profitability which allows it to be flexible on price movements. But Tesla may face stiffer competition later on when VW Group (with its many brands) transitions away from ICE-based cars to its next generation of platforms to fully commit to the EV race”, he adds.

Chan also touches on the weaknesses of BW’s EV strategy: “The difficulty for VW Group is that, unlike Tesla, and to a lesser degree BYD, they are not only focussed on selling EVs but are transitioning away from ICE-based vehicles which are still the majority of its sales and profits.”

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