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Analysts foresee China’s BYD potentially surpassing Tesla in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales by the close of 2024. This development underscores a notable transformation in the global EV market, signalling heightened competition and diversity within the industry.

Data compiled by TrendForce covering the full year 2023 reveals that the top 10 BEV companies now hold a collective 65% market share, with Tesla and BYD leading the charge. Tesla, the US EV titan, presently commands a 19.9% share of the global market. However, China’s leading electric automaker, BYD, closely follows with a 17.1% market share, indicating a closely contested race for the top position.

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The fourth quarter of 2023 marked a pivotal juncture, as BYD’s sales figures surpassed those of Tesla, with the Chinese company selling 526,000 vehicles compared to Tesla’s 485,000. This milestone is viewed as a potential precursor to BYD overtaking Tesla in annual sales by the conclusion of 2024.

In 2022, BYD had already outpaced Tesla as the foremost producer of all EVs, including non-BEVs, with a total production of 1.8 million vehicles compared to Tesla’s 1.3 million. This achievement underscores BYD’s burgeoning influence and strong performance, particularly in its domestic market. Additionally, BYD has embarked on international expansion, notably entering the European market and planning to establish factories within Europe to mitigate EU tariffs on Chinese car imports.

The competition within the BEV segment is further intensified by the performance of other Chinese automakers such as GAC Aion and SAIC-GM-Wuling, securing the third and fourth spots, respectively. European heavyweights Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz are also ramping up their electrification strategies, maintaining significant positions in the global rankings.

Global EV sales, encompassing BEVs, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs), and Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs), reached 13 million units in 2023. This figure reflects a growth rate of 29.8% over the previous year, albeit a slowdown from the 54.2% growth observed in 2022.

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This shifting landscape within the EV market underscores the escalating competitiveness and diversification of the industry. As BYD edges closer to potentially surpassing Tesla in BEV sales, the global dynamics of EV production and consumption are poised for further transformation, spotlighting the rapid evolution of the sector and the growing influence of Chinese automakers in shaping its trajectory.

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