More than 10m new and used cars will be sold in the UK in 2019 for the fifth consecutive year, according to data from Cox Automotive.
The figures represent a -2.1% fall in transactions year-on-year as the market returns to a sustainable level following a peak in 2017.
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They also predict a total of 2.65m new and used car transactions to occur in Q1 2020.
Philip Nothard, Customer Insight and Strategy Director for Cox Automotive UK, said: “Our 2019 forecasts have proved extremely accurate, and are within less than 1% of the SMMT figures released so far.”
“While 10 million new and used car transactions represents a year on year decline, it’s a fantastic achievement considering the headwinds that have buffeted the industry throughout the year,” he added.
Cox Automotive published their forecast for Q1 2020 which predicts 692,000 new car registrations and 1.96m used car transactions across the first three months of 2020.
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By GlobalDataThese numbers represent a slight drop year-on-year, from new car registrations, -1.3% and for used car transactions year on year down 12.7%.
Nothard said: “As we move into 2020, we know that CAFE legislation will begin to affect the market when it comes into force in January. Unlike WLTP, it’s unlikely to have a dramatic effect on new car availability and may actually improve the supply of some ‘greener’ vehicles as OEMs look to reduce their overall fleet emissions.”
“That said, the introduction of subsequent sets of green legislation has forced OEMs to invest heavily in developing greener technology to avoid fines, and they may look to off-set this with savings from distribution and dealer partnerships, squeezing profit margins for UK businesses.”
Political and economic uncertainty causing ripples in the car market, Cox Automotive’s forecast reflects wider trends within the automotive industry.
Nothard said: “We’re also seeing longer-term changes in the industry that will affect the highly competitive dealer landscape. Margin pressures, strong appetite for stock, the success of car supermarkets, and increased FCA regulation are all putting pressure on small independent dealers.”
“In addition, the development of a sales approach that blends online and physical will be a challenge to some and an opportunity for others,” he concluded.
