Tesla’s dominance in the European battery-electric-vehicle (BEV) market may be in jeopardy as the overall market share for BEVs is projected to stall this year, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence (BI).
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The analysis suggests that Volkswagen’s launch of new models to compete with Tesla’s Model Y, coupled with a price increase for the Model Y, could contribute to this shift.
In March, BEV sales dipped to 13.4% of the total market, down from 15.1% the previous year. Tesla’s market share also experienced a decline, dropping to 18.7% from 29% in the same period, according to BI data.
Gillian Davis, an Autos Analyst at BI, noted that despite Tesla maintaining its lead in the European BEV market in March, the company faces challenges, including the impact of a Model Y price hike and increased competition from Volkswagen’s new models such as the ID 7 tourer and Audi Q6.
Davis highlighted that Tesla’s sales can fluctuate, particularly as the Model 3 is imported from China, and consumer demand appears to be waning, as indicated by BI’s European car buyers survey in March.
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By GlobalDataTesla sold approximately 35,000 units in March, capturing an 18.7% market share, a decline from the previous year’s 26.9%. In comparison, the Volkswagen Group’s market share decreased slightly to 15.1% from 18.7% the prior year, with Stellantis closely following with a 14.1% share.
Despite Tesla’s Model Y maintaining its position as Europe’s top-selling BEV in the first two months of the year, competition from Chinese brands, such as MG’s MG4, is intensifying. However, BYD only holds a 1.5% share of the BEV market.
BI’s analysis indicates that BEV sales growth in Europe is expected to be modest, reaching 18% of total sales in 2024, up from about 15.3% in 2023. This forecast comes despite a potential price war among manufacturers, with discounts increasing to drive sales volume.
However, BI anticipates softened BEV demand, with only 18% of respondents in the latest European private auto buyers survey expressing intention to purchase a BEV.
While February saw a slight decrease in BEV market share compared to the previous year, the portion of BEV sales in the first two months of 2024 increased by 80 basis points to 12.2%. In 2023, BEVs accounted for 15.3% of the market share.
