Credit rating agency Moody’s has revised down its expectations for global automotive growth in 2013 and predicted UK car sales will fall this year.
Moody’s global auto industry analysis team, based in Frankfurt, now estimates worldwide light vehicle sales will grow by 2.3% in 2013, down from the 2.9% estimated in September 2012, having revised its prediction for the decline in European sales from 3% to 5%.
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At present, Moody’s expects worldwide sales to rise 4.9% in 2014 as the global economy recovers, including a 5% rise in demand in Western Europe.
It estimates 1.94 million new sales in the UK in 2013, a fall of 5.1% on the 2.04 million sold in 2012, followed by a recovery of 4.1% to 2.02 million sales in 2014.
The prediction is more conservative than both that made by Professor Peter Cooke and White Clarke Group of 1.98 million units in 2013 and 2.10 million units in 2014, although these estimates were posted toward the end of 2012 at a time when it predicted 1.94 million sales in 2012. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, which also underestimated total new sales in 2012 at 2.01 million units, is now estimating 2.06 million sales in 2013 and 2.11 million sales in 2014, a revision up from the 2.02 million and 2.06 million estimations, respectively, made in November 2012.
The company also highlighted the US and Chinese markets as drivers for growth. It expects the US new sales market to rise 5.2% to 15.25 million units in 2013, and by 4.9% in 2014 to 16 million units, as the housing market recovers and consumers seek to replace their vehicles which currently average 11 years of age. Based on GDP growth forecasts, vehicle demand in China is expected to grow by 7% in 2013, down from Moody’s September 2012 estimate of 8.5%, and by 7% again in 2014.
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By GlobalDatarichard.brown@timetric.com
