Figures from government transport departments, including Lawrence Davies, chief executive at the Department of International Trade’s Automotive Investment Organisation, and Andy Eastlake, managing director at the Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership, met in London last month to discuss the future of mobility in the UK, and the obstacles faced as the industry tries to achieve the Road to Zero targets set out by the government. Chris Lemmon reports.
The panel discussed how the transport system in the UK and around the world is on the cusp of a seismic shift. Consumers are rethinking their ideals on transport, turning increasingly to mobility-as-a-service and usership options.
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The environmental impact of the automotive industry can no longer be ignored, with the UK government making strong commitments to reaching zero-emission targets by 2050. The car market is also in a state of flux, with government and industry bodies preparing themselves for a fresh look to the country’s transport network.
“Our mission is to put the UK at the forefront of the manufacturing of zero-emission vehicles, with a view of being at net zero emissions by 2040,” said Vicky Edmonds, head of the Office for Low Emission Vehicles – Road to Zero.
“By 2030, we want at least 50% of all new car sales to be ultra-low-emission vehicles, and up to 40% of vans.”
Edmonds explained that there are currently two main barriers to mass market adoption: price and range anxiety. However, Edmonds believes these problems will be solved in the not-too-distant future as technology continues to develop.
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By GlobalData“The predictions for price parity between internal-combustion engines and zero-emission vehicles sit at any time between 2022 and 2028. It is at that point that mass market adoption will begin to be achieved.”
Unwarranted Fear
When speaking about range anxiety, Edmonds said there is an unwarranted fear among consumers that has created a gap between perception and reality.
“I have an electric vehicle (EV),” she said. “I don’t have on-street parking and I have no trouble charging my car. Infrastructure is really starting to roll out, along with the vehicles. The challenge for us is to give consumers confidence.”
One way to encourage confidence among consumers is by providing greater incentives for purchasing EVs. Responding to a question from the audience on why the UK does not follow a similar incentive programme to Norway, Edmonds said this is “a bit like comparing apples and oranges”. She explained: “They do not have a car industry like we have in the UK, while overall car fees are much less than ours. They do have a good incentive package, but our incentive package is still stimulating the market in the UK.
“The UK is still the second-largest market in Europe in terms of sales. In terms of manufacturing, we have an edge in that the Nissan Leaf is manufactured here, and is now responsible for a fifth of all EV sales,” Edmonds added.
As the number of EV sales continues to rise in the UK, the accompanying cost will fall rapidly over the next few years. While the UK is currently going through its teething phase, mass market adoption appears to be around the corner, and the infrastructure needs to be ready to support that.
“Change is hard,” added Lawrence Davies, chief executive at the Department of International Trade’s Automotive Investment Organisation. “Every change is hard. These are the growing pains, and we are likely to make more mistakes moving forward. We are the guinea pigs, unfortunately.”
Autonomous Future
An audience member quizzed the panel on public appetite for autonomous vehicles, and whether we are likely to see incentives for them similar to those for EVs, which currently include all EVs being exempt from non-recurring vehicle fees such as purchase taxes and 25% VAT on purchases.
Iain Forbes, head of the government’s Centre for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles, said his department has recently completed a public dialogue on autonomous and self-driving vehicles. According to Forbes, the survey revealed positive sentiment towards the technology, with people recognising both the upsides and some of the downsides it would bring.
“People have a sophisticated sense of what this technology might mean for them. What consumers want to understand is how it is going to improve their lives. It is really important that companies working with this technology do a lot of work to engage with members of the public and people from a wide range of transport user groups.
“This is a very new technology, and people want to be confident knowing it is safe and secure. They want to have some sense that someone in a white coat is doing the proper work to ensure that the technology works safely and efficiently.”
Neil Fulton, chief operating officer at Connected Places Catapult, said he expects the freight network to be one of the first industries to adopt the autonomous technology, with motorways likely to be one of the first geo-fenced areas in which self-driving cars can operate. However, the testing for the technology remains in its infancy, with widespread roll-out not expected within the next five years.
With regards to incentives for the self-driving industry, Fulton said it is still too soon for the government to intervene. “The market for EVs is more mature, so there is a greater sense of what is market-ready,” he noted. “When we have gotten to the point of market maturity, then we can start having that conversation.”
Alternative Means
Another talking point at the roundtable discussion was the changing nature of travel we may see in the future. Cenex chief executive Robert Evans said the implementation of 5G and its capabilities could spell a new age of mobility in the UK.
“The element of connectivity that will come with 5G means people will start to ask questions about some of the trips they make, because some of the processes and relationships that you can have with people in the virtual world are almost as good as face-to-face in a way that never was before.”
Forbes added that, moving forward, the automotive industry needs to ensure that emerging technologies correctly serve the needs of the public at national and local levels. He explained: “At a national level, the principles and the strategies are about making sure we avoid inadvertently having some application technology that makes the transport system worse.
“At a local level, the reason we are investigating with local authorities is to try and help them get their heads around the fact that transport is changing, so they can shape it around the needs of their citizens.”
Moving Forward
Andy Eastlake, managing director at the Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership, spoke to the panel to explain the agenda set by the government and the challenges faced in achieving the targets.
“The Road to Zero was a really important document; however, it suffered in the fact that it was very broad. The headline that got picked up was that we are going to ban all non-electric cars and vans in 2040.
“It was never a ban. We never banned horses, but you don’t see many of them on the streets of London. You do not need to ban things if you make sure the alternative is much, much better and far more convenient.”
With the new net-zero target, Eastlake noted that agendas across the industry have become more urgent.
“The UK has now legislated for 2050 for there to be a 100% reduction in CO2 emissions, rather than the previously stated 80%,” Eastlake said.
“One of the challenges we faced with the 80% figure was that everybody thought they were part of the 20% that could get away with it. Now there is nowhere to hide.
Transport is the biggest sector and contributor to carbon in the UK – contributing 27% of total greenhouse gas emissions.”
The problem we face, according to Eastlake, is that even if we achieve the goal of zero-emission cars and vans by 2030, there will still be a huge amount of carbon being produced by combustion engines. To solve this issue, the government must also invest in the decarbonisation of fuels.
“Vehicle technology is this huge spectrum with a lot of focus on it, but people sometimes forget that full technology also has a full spectrum – all the way up to highly renewable,” continued Eastlake.
“Low-carbon sustainable fuels will play a big role in carbon-neutral growth over the next 30 years. Our view is to try to evolve and develop those fuels.”
