News from a number of industry
sources that used values are, at best, stalling and more likely
falling in coming weeks may have come as a shock to some vendors,
particularly as 2009 has generally been very bullish on price.
BCA’s latest Pulse report suggest
that average used car values have decreased for the second month
running, pointing out that the market has not seen consecutive
monthly falls since August of 2008. The month-on-month fall between
September and October was around £200, with an average value of
£6,021 recorded in October.
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But let’s take that figure in some
sort of context. It is still the fourth-highest monthly figure
recorded in over two years. It is a significant £1,278 (or 27
percent) ahead of the figure BCA recorded in October 2008. And
while there have been back-to-back monthly falls in average value,
the September figure was down by just £6 – hardly a fall at all,
particularly when looking at how the mix had changed away from high
value ‘premium’ stock over the month.
Of course, price alone does not tell
the whole story. Volumes have increased, just at the time that
demand has softened. And as we have been short of stock all year,
it is almost inevitable that we see some pressure on average values
when volumes rise.
The net effect is that we have moved
from a market that is achieving above CAP Clean on average to one
where the average is nearer 95 percent of CAP Clean – the lowest it
has been all year.
This has proved a difficult pill for
some vendors to swallow. After all, during 2009 prices have
averaged above or just below CAP Clean nearly every month.
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By GlobalDataSome sellers are turning down bids in
the current market that are significantly higher than they were
accepting just a few weeks ago, simply because they are not CAP
Clean. Their conversion rates have fallen quite sharply as a result
and we are advising these vendors to closely monitor the volume and
ageing profile of their unsold stock.
It is worthy remembering that direct
entered corporate stock remains highly desirable and the best cars
in the most attractive colours will continue to sell strongly. But
don’t judge your remarketing performance on the best cars
alone.
Our view is that it is far more
beneficial to focus on the real time cash values that the market is
prepared to pay than any guide price equivalent.
Mark Hankey, sales director,
BCA
Source: FLA
Source: FLA
Fleet vehicles: residual
values
|
1 year old (20,000m) |
2 year old (40,000m) |
3 year old (60,000m) |
||||
|
Oct 09 (£) |
Nov 09 (£) |
Oct 09 (£) |
Nov 09 (£) |
Oct 09 (£) |
Nov 09 (£) |
|
|
Ford: New |
8,000 |
7,600 |
6,500 |
6,300 |
4,300 |
4,000 |
|
Mondeo 1.6 Zetec/1.8 LX 5dr A/C |
9,500 |
9,200 |
7,000 |
6,750 |
3,600 |
3,400 |
|
Galaxy 2.0 Zetec |
12,000 |
11,800 |
9,500 |
9,300 |
7,400 |
7,200 |
|
Land |
26,000 |
25,000 |
21,200 |
20,500 |
17,500 |
17,000 |
|
Land |
6,400 |
6,000 |
5,000 |
4,750 |
4,000 |
3,800 |
|
Astra 1.6 Club 5dr |
6,800 |
6,500 |
5,600 |
5,400 |
4,000 |
3,800 |
|
Vectra 1.8 Design |
7,400 |
7,000 |
5,750 |
5,500 |
4,300 |
4,100 |
|
Citreön: |
7,000 |
6,750 |
5,600 |
5,400 |
4,500 |
4,300 |
|
Peugeot: |
6,000 |
5,600 |
5,000 |
4,750 |
3,750 |
3,500 |
|
407 1.8S Multimedia/407 S 1.8 |
6,500 |
6,200 |
5,000 |
4,750 |
3,500 |
3,300 |
|
BMW: New |
17,200 |
16,500 |
13,400 |
13,000 |
11,000 |
10,500 |
|
Mercedes: |
16,500 |
15,800 |
13,200 |
12,600 |
9,200 |
8,800 |
|
Audi: A4 |
13,000 |
12,500 |
10,250 |
9,800 |
7,750 |
7,500 |
|
Source: BCA |
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