The used car market will reach 2.02 million transactions by the end of March, according to research from Cox Automotive.
The forecast follows recent used car figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) that confirm a total of 7.9 million transactions in 2018, a fall of -2.1% year-on-year.
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The final SMMT figure was within 1% of Cox Automotive’s first long-range forecast, published in August.
Philip Nothard, Cox Automotive UK’s customer insight and strategy director, said: “2018 was a good year for the used car market when you consider the uncertainty around Brexit, the economy, and the effects of WLTP.
“In contrast to new car sales, there was more stability in the used market and, as a result, many dealers have switched their focus from new to used. To be within 1% of the SMMT figure with our long-range 2018 forecast is testament to the expertise within our data solutions team.
“Our forecast of 2.02 million used car transactions in the first quarter of 2019 represents a modest decline of 0.6% on 2018, but still gives an encouraging outlook for used car retailers and finance providers. This would represent the fourth year in a row that used car transactions have passed the two million mark – a fantastic achievement that shows the strength of the market.”
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By GlobalDataAccording to figures from the SMMT, the UK used car market had a year-on-year decline of 2.1% in 2018 to 7,945,040 transactions.
In total, 167,980 fewer cars we sold compared to 2017. This is a decline not as severe as the new car market which fell by 6.8% year-on-year, and remains as the third highest year in sales on SMMT records dating back to 2001.
Sales of hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery electric cars, rose 27% in the year to 106,658 vehicles sold. Contrasting to the 29.6% year-on-year drop in new car registrations for diesel vehicles, in the used sector there was a 0.3% increase.
Nothard said: “2018 was the first year that alternative fuel vehicles were available in the wholesale market in any quantity, and the growth in used car sales is certainly encouraging.
“While diesel transactions held steady in 2018, the used-car market is starting to see the impact of reduced diesel registrations over the last three years. Availability of nearly-new diesel cars will certainly fall during 2019, although prices are likely to remain in line with the market in general.”
