Marginal price increases
across the board, reports BCA’s Tim Naylor.

 

Overall, February was a mixed month
for the used car market, with the month starting brightly as the
residual demand from January kept prices firm, but with demand
seeming to dwindle later in the month – which is not unusual as the
markets tend to draw breath in advance of the plate change.

Values across the board increased –
but only marginally – by just £11 compared to January’s figure to
reach £5,985 – their highest point since December 2009. However,
much of this was due to a richer model mix in the nearly new sector
as both fleet and dealer part exchange averages fell.

Nearly new values improved notably,
rising by £2,208 (12.5%) thanks to a richer model mix and lifted
the average value across the board into the black.

Sold volumes were down by more than
4% compared to the levels seen in January, and with entries
increasing, conversions came under some pressure as a result.

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Performance against CAP Clean
dropped by over a point to 97.4%, down from the 98.6% achieved
across the board in January. Year-on-year, February 2011 is ahead
of the same period last year by just £26 – less than half of
one%.

Fleet values fell by £186 to £7,553
in February, with CAP performance dropping by just under a point to
97.7%. Year-on-year values are ahead by £189, equivalent to a 2.5%
rise.

Model mix will undoubtedly have had
a part to play in the average value decline, with a lower%age of
higher value premium cars sold in February compared to January.

There was a smaller decline in the
part exchange sector, which fell by £39 to £2,798, halting a run of
three consecutive monthly value improvements. Despite the fall,
February’s average value was the second highest on record,
underlining the relatively high levels of demand in the budget car
sector.

Performance against CAP fell back
by nearly three points over the month to 92.7%. Year-on-year, the
February 2011 average value was £140 (5.2%) ahead of last year.

 

Up to one year
old

The nearly new sector recorded a
strong February with most sectors showing a marked improvement over
the average values seen in January.

While there was some pressure on
values for smaller and larger hatchbacks, mini-MPVs and roadsters,
every other sector saw values move on at a pace.

This builds on the stronger values
reported by retail dealers on like-for-like nearly new models in
January.

With limited supplies in this age
sector, competition remains high for the best examples in the
wholesale sector and this – combined with a number of prestige and
high-value sales staged in the month – saw the wholesale average
value for nearly new cars rise by some 12.5%.

As always the caveat about model
mix must be observed, as this has a greater effect in smaller
volume samples.

 

One to three years
old

Volumes rose quite significantly in
this age bracket, giving a more realistic picture of demand across
the body shapes.

Generally, values in the biggest
volume sectors fell back slightly – reflecting the softer demand
experienced later in the month, while the low-volume specialist and
niche sectors saw prices continue to rise. In total, 6 of 11
sectors improved in value in February, compared to nine last month.
4x4s bounced back after experiencing some price pressure in January
– going from a 5% decline to a 1.5% increase in February.

With the improving weather, look
out for convertible and roadster values over the next few weeks –
the market for these cars improves significantly as the temperature
rises and the lighter evenings return.

Fleet and lease operators – the
prime providers of stock in this age range – will have seen values
come under a little pressure in February, as volumes increased and
impacted conversion rates.

 

Three to five years
old

The budget older car sector
continues to flourish, with 7 out of 11 model sectors improving in
value by up to 14%.

Volume sectors proved the strongest
in terms of month-on-month performance, with small saloons, hatches
and MPVs all recording a notable improvement over January.
Convertibles and roadsters also performed well. Other sectors held
up reasonably well, suggesting demand is broad based.

Table showing car product sold unit market performance – February 2011