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Despite ongoing uncertainty in the economy, the latest price
data from BCA shows that average prices for used cars continued to
rise in the third quarter.  However, September was relatively
weaker than both 2006 and 2005, and there are concerns that values
could come under pressure in the final quarter of 2007.

September rise conceals weakening market

Values for fleet & lease vehicles rose to £7,345 in
September, an increase of nearly £400 over August. In comparison,
last year values leapt by nearly £1,000 between August and
September.

Against CAP Clean, values averaged 98.4 per cent – the highest
figure recorded this year, although CAP percentages did not hit the
heights they achieved in September 2005 and 2006.

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Values in other sectors also reached record levels in September.
Part-exchange values peaked at £3,280 – a modest rise of £40 over
August, but still the highest monthly value on record.

BCA’s communications director Tony Gannon commented: “While
third quarter values have been strong this year, they could be
concealing a weakening market. September has not provided the step
up it did in 2006, and the signs are that values will be under
pressure in October and potentially to the end of the year.”

He added: “In September last year, fleet values reached record
levels at £7,190 and the leap from August ‘06 to September ‘06 was
nearly £1,000. This year, record values have again been achieved
but the increase over August was less than £400.

“It could be argued that either August was weak last year and
strong this, or that September was exceptional in 2006 and somewhat
less so this year. As September 2006 recorded average CAP values in
excess of 100 per cent of Clean and this year is off the pace, the
latter is likely to be a more accurate assumption.”

Q3 data

Average fleet & lease values across Q3 as a whole were down
against Q2 from £7,130 to £7,094. This repeats the pattern
established in previous years. Year on year, however, average
quarterly values were ahead by £483.

Average quarterly performance against CAP Clean by fleet &
lease cars increased by 1.4 points to 97.5 per cent – again the
highest figure this year, but behind the same period in 2006, where
an average of 98.1 per cent was recorded. This continues the
pattern seen every year going back to 2004 when Q3 and September in
particular have been the high points in the annual cycle. Average
mileage fell slightly against last quarter, while average age at
remarketing rose by approximately one week to 38.25 months.

While fleet and lease values were falling, other sectors
performed relatively better. Average part-exchange values rose to
£3,257 – a new quarterly record value – and nearly £500 ahead of
the same quarter last year (£2,790). Nearly-new values also reached
record levels, rising by £1,100 to £16,209, against the previous
quarter of £15,109. Year on year, nearly-new values are around
£1,000 ahead of 2006.

The BCA Index, which aggregates the values across the three
sectors weighted to volume, improved again to 119 points, the
highest point recorded to date in the four years it has
covered.

Gannon concluded: “What is clear to see is that there has been a
notable price evolution across the board as used values by sector
are significantly higher in 2007 than they were in 2006. However,
we could be about to see conditions tighten somewhat in the final
part of the year and sellers should watch the trends very closely
to ensure their stock is valued in line with market sentiment.”

Fleet & Lease average monthly values 2007 to ¾
year

Average selling price fleet & lease cars at
auction